ENROLLMENT FORECASTING...A METHOD TO THE MADNESS | Integrated Enrollment Solutions 422 E. Main, #210 Nacogdoches, TX 75961 888-676-5524 |
Institutions often struggle to project enrollment. Linking enrollment goals to budget is key to providing your enrollment staff (admissions and advising) with goals that can be achieved but there are many factors to developing realistic projections.
Get Organized
The first key to projecting enrollment is to review your historical enrollment trends. You should have at least three to five years worth of data in order to make any type of accurate forecast. Ideally, you will have the following data for each enrollment period:
* Student enrollment by category (new, returning and, if applicable, reenters). Many institutions do not track reenters seperately from their returning student numbers. However, if you don't measure these seperately, you will not be able to accurately track persistence from session to session. At some institutions, the number of reenters is significant at certain times of the year (typically fall and winter). Additionally, over the course of the year the number of reentering students can often be as large as the number of new students!
* Credit hours generated by category. Because you will want to tie enrollment goals in to your budget--and budget is generated from credit hours, you will need to be able to calculate the average number of credits each student in each category is likely to generate.
If you can't access all the data in this particular format, you can still make projections although they will be less accurate. Commit to begin collecting this information this year!
Do the Math and Your Homework
Now that you have your historical data, you will need to perform some calculations to help project future enrollment. Things you will want to measure are:
* Percentage increase in New and Reenter students. This is a raw percentage increase/decrease in the total number of students per category. This is where having at least three, and hopefully five, years of trending data will be of assistance. If you notice dramatic variances in certain years, you will want to determine the causes. If you don't know, that's a problem! Wins and losses don't happen by accident. If you can't determine the appropriate factors, then you may not be able to recreate (or in the case of decreases, avoid) them.
* Average Credit Load. The average credit load can be calculated by dividing the total credits by the total number of students. This provides you with the 'average' number of credits you can expect each student to generate. If you are doing this by student category, you may see significant differences.
* Persistence Rate. The persistence rate is the percentage of students who return from one enrollment session to the next. This will allow you to make accurate projections of the number of students you can expect. This rate is determined by dividing the returning student enrollment by the total enrollment from the previous session. As an example: Total fall term enrollment = 400;
Returning students winter term = 300; Persistence rate = 300/400 or 75%
Making Projections
Initial Projections. It's usually safe to assume that if you don't make any changes in process or programming, you will end up with the same or less than you had the previous year. This isn't where most institutions want to be, but it is often where they end up in reality. You simply cannot expect different results doing the same thing.
| "Justify exceptions to historical trends." |
Assess your Environments. To determine what you can do to impact your enrollment, look externally first, then identify the internal factors that will help you increase enrollment. It is important to note that small changes along the enrollment funnel can have net significant gains. For instance, increasing your conversion rate of leads to applicants by as little as 1% or 2% while maintaining your start rate will provide many more new students. Increasing your persistence rate by say 2% to 3% will also provide dramatic revenue. Externally, do you have additional competitors moving in to your markets? Are there any moving out? Are their new local, state or national regulations that will impact your enrollment? Are there trends within a particular industry for which you are training graduates that will have a positive or negative impact? |
Internally, are you offering new programs? Do you intend to eliminate any programs? Are you implementing new admissions standards? Are there new services or processes that you are implementing that are expected to have a positive impact? Do you have changes in personnel that will effect enrollment (significant turn over impacts the productivity, even if they are long-term more effective.)
End Result
After you have determined your historical information, trending, external and internal factors you are able to give a better projection of enrollment and credit hours that can be utilized to build both your budget and enrollment goals. Any significant variations from historical enrollment need to be justified. For instance, if you are projecting a 10% increase in new students and the last three years you have achieved a 5% increase, then you better have some rationale for why this will double. Perhaps you are adding new programming or spending significantly more in advertising or hiring more admission personnel. There are many things that could generate that 10% increase.
Of course, developing a detailed enrollment plan to assist in attaining your enrolment goals is the next step. A previous article on developing an enrollment plan is available through the Best Practices site.
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